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Reflective Perspective Global warming - the forgotten angle. Global warming has quite literally become the hottest issue in recent months following the Stern report – which basically projected that the cost of the impact of global warming/climate change was greater than the cost of mitigating it. Much of the discussion that followed has been focused on whether global warming has been caused by human activity or if it is a natural phenomenon. This is like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. What is apparent is that global warming has the potential to severely disrupt or destroy entire ecosystems and destabilise the global economy. And while it can be argued that ecosystems are always changing, it appears that in this particular instance that the rate of change (which we will continue to witness) will be so rapid that biodiversity will suffer – much like the end of the dinosaur era. Basically, global warming will impact on how well plants and animals are adapted to their local environment as warming will change the conditions in the local environment. For the individual plants and animals to survive in sufficient numbers, they will have to migrate or evolve. While some species will be able to migrate quickly and easily (migrating birds), others will take some time (animals), and a proportion will not make it at all (some plants). Even for those who can migrate, they face moving into an environment where that ecosystem is also being destabilised by a period of change - with its own existing set of resident species going through the process of extinction, evolution and/or migration. Virtually each and every ecosystem will continue to have a rapid rate of change until the inhabitants of each environment, are suited to that environment. This ‘establishment’ period, is likely to be far longer than the period of climate change itself. The upshot of this will be a net reduction in suitable habitat for a large proportion of the world’s plants and animals during the establishment period, resulting in a net loss of biodiversity. From an economic perspective, a similar process will take place. However, the relevant plants and animals will be crops and livestock farming. The type and practices of farming will either have to change or risk becoming uneconomic. The richer countries will have the specialist knowledge to be able to understand, predict and position themselves effectively for the changing environment. The poorer countries will not. As a result, poverty is likely to increase – widening the gap between the rich and the poor. The bright spot on the horizon is that it is likely that our current and future efforts to curb emissions of greenhouse gasses will eventually slow or even stop the process of climate change. However, it is not clear when this will be achieved, or how much the climate will have already changed by that time. What is clear is that by the time the world has the commitment, technology and impetus to stop global warming, it will then face another very difficult question. How much of the warming should be reversed. As reversing the change will not only result in more disruption to those ecosystems which have already begun to evolve, it will also have staunch opposition from those who have benefited from the change (as they act to protect their interests) and only lukewarm support from the losers - as they have been weakened by the change itself. The world will continue to get warmer for some time, we'll have to live with that. |